Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 100 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

94.8%

24h Change

-0.3 pp

Signal Score

40/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 0.3pp; volume is 16.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 9 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-14 12:18 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability fell 0.3pp
  • 24h volume is 16.3x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $43,491

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

No samples yet

Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.

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Current

94.8%

24h Change

-0.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

0 stored snapshots

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$131.4K

Volume vs Baseline

16.3x baseline

Liquidity

$43.5K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 100 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

68

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 40/100.

Probability Momentum 1
Volume Activity 100
Liquidity Quality 88
Persistence 10
Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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