Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Open · Resolves in 88 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

10.4%

24h Change

+0.2 pp

Signal Score

21/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability rose 0.2pp; volume is 0.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 07:42 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.2pp
24h volume is 0.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $147,538

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

10.4%

24h Change

+0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

26 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM	10.4%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM	10.4%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM	9.7%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM	10.1%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM	10.1%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM	10.3%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM	10.7%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM	10.7%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM	10.7%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM	10.7%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM	10.7%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM	11.0%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM	11.1%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM	11.0%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM	11.1%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM	11.1%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM	10.8%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 AM	10.5%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM	10.3%
7/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM	9.7%
7/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM	9.7%
7/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM	9.7%
7/28/2026, 4:00:00 PM	9.7%
7/28/2026, 3:00:00 PM	9.7%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$40.3K

Volume vs Baseline

0.9x baseline

Liquidity

$147.5K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 88 days

End Date

Oct 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 21/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 55

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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