Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Open · Resolves in 37 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

11.3%

24h Change

-0.8 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (87)

24h probability fell 0.8pp; volume is 2.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 15 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-09 22:22 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability fell 0.8pp
  • 24h volume is 2.4x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $97,094

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

No samples yet

Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.

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Current

11.3%

24h Change

-0.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

0 stored snapshots

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$74.9K

Volume vs Baseline

2.4x baseline

Liquidity

$97.1K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 37 days

End Date

Oct 31, 2026

Attention Score

45

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 3
Volume Activity 53
Liquidity Quality 89
Persistence 91
Data Confidence High (87)

Next Steps

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