Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current Probability
11.3%
24h Change
-0.8 pp
Signal Score
42/100
Data Confidence
High (87)
24h probability fell 0.8pp; volume is 2.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 0.8pp
- 24h volume is 2.4x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $97,094
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.
Browse other marketsCurrent
11.3%
24h Change
-0.8 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
-1.0 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$74.9K
Volume vs Baseline
2.4x baseline
Liquidity
$97.1K
Market Significance
High (74)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 37 days
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Attention Score
45
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.