Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Open · Resolves in 40 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.3%

24h Change

+0.1 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability rose 0.1pp; volume is 5.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-18 00:00 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.1pp
24h volume is 5.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $294,474

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.3%

24h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

87 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 18, 12:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/18/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 11:45:00 PM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 4:30:00 PM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 11:15:00 AM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 4:15:00 AM	0.3%
9/17/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$169.2K

Volume vs Baseline

5.1x baseline

Liquidity

$294.5K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 40 days

End Date

Oct 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 92

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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