Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Open · Resolves in 88 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.3%

24h Change

+0.2 pp

Signal Score

34/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability rose 0.2pp; volume is 2.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 07:36 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.2pp
24h volume is 2.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $229,944

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.3%

24h Change

+0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

128 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.0%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.0%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.0%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$53.5K

Volume vs Baseline

2.3x baseline

Liquidity

$229.9K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 88 days

End Date

Oct 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 34/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 51

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 52

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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