Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Open · Resolves in 37 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

23.5%

24h Change

+2.3 pp

Signal Score

39/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability rose 2.3pp; volume is 2.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-18 10:53 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 2.3pp
24h volume is 2.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $104,254

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

23.5%

24h Change

+2.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

14 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 18, 10:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/18/2026, 10:45:00 AM	23.5%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 AM	23.9%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 AM	22.9%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 AM	22.9%
9/18/2026, 7:00:00 AM	22.4%
9/18/2026, 6:00:00 AM	20.1%
9/18/2026, 5:00:00 AM	20.1%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 AM	20.1%
9/18/2026, 3:00:00 AM	20.6%
9/18/2026, 2:00:00 AM	20.2%
9/18/2026, 1:00:00 AM	20.4%
9/18/2026, 12:00:00 AM	20.6%
9/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM	20.4%
9/17/2026, 10:00:00 PM	19.7%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$79.9K

Volume vs Baseline

2.4x baseline

Liquidity

$104.3K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 37 days

End Date

Oct 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 39/100.

Probability Momentum 8

Volume Activity 54

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 58

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

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