Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Open · Resolves in 88 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

21.3%

24h Change

-2.3 pp

Signal Score

35/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 2.3pp; volume is 3.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-31 17:12 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 2.3pp
24h volume is 3.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $235,329

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

21.3%

24h Change

-2.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

59 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 31, 05:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM	21.3%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM	21.2%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 PM	21.3%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM	21.3%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 PM	22.3%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 PM	23.2%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 AM	23.2%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM	23.2%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM	23.2%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 AM	23.2%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 AM	23.2%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 AM	23.2%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 AM	23.2%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 AM	23.2%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 AM	23.2%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 AM	23.2%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 AM	23.2%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 AM	23.2%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM	23.2%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 PM	23.2%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 PM	23.2%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 PM	23.2%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 PM	23.4%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM	23.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$91.9K

Volume vs Baseline

3.0x baseline

Liquidity

$235.3K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 88 days

End Date

Oct 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 35/100.

Probability Momentum 8

Volume Activity 68

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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