Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Open · Resolves in 88 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

53.0%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

28/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

volume is 2.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 2.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $227,227

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

53.0%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

158 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	53.0%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	53.0%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	53.1%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	53.1%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	53.0%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	53.0%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	53.0%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	53.0%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	51.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	51.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	51.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	51.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	51.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	51.8%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	51.8%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	51.8%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	51.8%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	51.8%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	51.8%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	51.8%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	52.8%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	53.0%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	53.0%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	53.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$122.5K

Volume vs Baseline

2.1x baseline

Liquidity

$227.2K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 88 days

End Date

Oct 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 28/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 46

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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