Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Open · Resolves in 88 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

2.9%

24h Change

+1.5 pp

Signal Score

33/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 1.5pp; volume is 2.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 10:56 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 1.5pp
24h volume is 2.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $184,872

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.9%

24h Change

+1.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

147 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 10:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 10:45:00 AM	2.9%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/3/2026, 9:15:00 AM	2.9%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/3/2026, 8:45:00 AM	2.9%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	2.9%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	2.2%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.3%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM	2.3%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.3%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM	2.3%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.6%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	3.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$65.2K

Volume vs Baseline

2.6x baseline

Liquidity

$184.9K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 88 days

End Date

Oct 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 33/100.

Probability Momentum 5

Volume Activity 60

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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