Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Open · Resolves in 37 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

4.3%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

38/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

volume is 2.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-18 04:33 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 2.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $164,489

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

4.3%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

9 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 18, 04:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/18/2026, 4:30:00 AM	4.3%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 AM	4.3%
9/18/2026, 3:00:00 AM	4.7%
9/18/2026, 2:00:00 AM	4.5%
9/18/2026, 1:00:00 AM	4.3%
9/18/2026, 12:00:00 AM	4.2%
9/17/2026, 11:45:00 PM	4.2%
9/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM	4.0%
9/17/2026, 10:00:00 PM	4.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$79.5K

Volume vs Baseline

2.9x baseline

Liquidity

$164.5K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 37 days

End Date

Oct 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 38/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 67

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 55

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

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