Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Current Probability
4.2%
24h Change
+0.3 pp
Signal Score
29/100
Data Confidence
High (88)
24h probability rose 0.3pp; volume is 1.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability rose 0.3pp
- 24h volume is 1.0x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $187,819
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
4.2%
24h Change
+0.3 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM | 4.2% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 4.2% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 3.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM | 3.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 3.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 3.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 3.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM | 3.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 3.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 4.2% |
| 7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 4.9% |
| 7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 5.1% |
| 7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 5.1% |
| 7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 5.1% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 5.1% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 5.1% |
| 7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM | 5.1% |
| 7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 5.1% |
| 7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM | 5.1% |
| 7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 5.1% |
| 7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM | 5.3% |
| 7/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 5.3% |
| 7/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 5.2% |
| 7/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 5.5% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
+0.3 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$47.9K
Volume vs Baseline
1.0x baseline
Liquidity
$187.8K
Market Significance
High (75)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 88 days
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Attention Score
18
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 29/100.
Probability Momentum
Strength of recent probability movement 1
Volume Activity
Trading activity versus the recent baseline 1
Liquidity Quality
Depth available to absorb orders without large price impact 87
Persistence
Whether the move holds across more than one lookback window 100
Data Confidence
Independent quality score for history coverage and data reliability High (88)