Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Current Probability
4.5%
24h Change
Unchanged
Signal Score
37/100
Data Confidence
High (81)
volume is 3.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability was effectively unchanged
- 24h volume is 3.6x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $131,585
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
4.5%
24h Change
Unchanged
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 9/18/2026, 10:45:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 9/18/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 9/18/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 9/18/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 9/18/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 9/18/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 9/18/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 9/18/2026, 4:30:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 9/18/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 9/18/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 9/18/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 9/18/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 9/18/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 9/17/2026, 11:45:00 PM | 4.5% |
| 9/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM | 4.5% |
| 9/17/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 4.5% |
| 9/17/2026, 9:00:00 PM | 4.5% |
| 9/17/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 4.5% |
| 9/17/2026, 7:00:00 PM | 4.5% |
| 9/17/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 4.5% |
| 9/17/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 4.5% |
| 9/17/2026, 4:30:00 PM | 4.5% |
| 9/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 4.5% |
| 9/17/2026, 3:00:00 PM | 4.5% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
Unchanged
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$99.9K
Volume vs Baseline
3.6x baseline
Liquidity
$131.6K
Market Significance
High (75)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 37 days
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Attention Score
58
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 37/100.
Probability Momentum
Strength of recent probability movement 0
Volume Activity
Trading activity versus the recent baseline 80
Liquidity Quality
Depth available to absorb orders without large price impact 90
Persistence
Whether the move holds across more than one lookback window 20
Data Confidence
Independent quality score for history coverage and data reliability High (81)