Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Open · Resolves in 86 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.4%

24h Change

+0.3 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 0.3pp; volume is 6.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-05 22:18 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.3pp
24h volume is 6.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $154,126

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.4%

24h Change

+0.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

161 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 5, 10:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/5/2026, 10:15:00 PM	0.4%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$94.8K

Volume vs Baseline

6.8x baseline

Liquidity

$154.1K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 86 days

End Date

Oct 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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