Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Open · Resolves in 99 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.8%

24h Change

-3.3 pp

Signal Score

50/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability fell 3.2pp; volume is 11.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-17 16:36 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 3.2pp
24h volume is 11.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $172,414

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.8%

24h Change

-3.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

20 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 17, 04:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/17/2026, 4:30:00 PM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 11:15:00 AM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.7%
9/17/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 4:15:00 AM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.8%
9/17/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.4%
9/17/2026, 12:00:00 AM	2.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$126.3K

Volume vs Baseline

11.7x baseline

Liquidity

$172.4K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 99 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 50/100.

Probability Momentum 11

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 41

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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