Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

2.4%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

30/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 0.1pp; volume is 2.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 13:18 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.1pp
24h volume is 2.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $60,501

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.4%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

52 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 01:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM	2.4%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM	2.4%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM	2.4%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM	2.4%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM	2.4%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM	2.4%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM	2.4%
7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM	2.4%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.4%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM	2.4%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM	2.4%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.4%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM	2.5%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM	2.5%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.5%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM	2.4%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM	2.4%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM	2.4%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.4%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.4%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.5%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.4%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM	2.5%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$25.0K

Volume vs Baseline

2.5x baseline

Liquidity

$60.5K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 30/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 58

Liquidity Quality 82

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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