Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.5%

24h Change

-0.4 pp

Signal Score

41/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 0.4pp; volume is 6.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 07:42 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.4pp
24h volume is 6.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $140,506

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.5%

24h Change

-0.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

45 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM	0.5%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.5%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.5%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.5%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.5%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.5%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.5%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.5%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.5%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.5%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.5%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.5%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.5%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.7%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.7%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.8%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.8%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.8%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.8%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.8%
7/29/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.8%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.8%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.9%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.9%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$26.8K

Volume vs Baseline

6.4x baseline

Liquidity

$140.5K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 41/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 84

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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