Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Open · Resolves in 40 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

94.7%

24h Change

-1.4 pp

Signal Score

47/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability fell 1.4pp; volume is 27.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-19 00:01 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.4pp
24h volume is 27.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $78,728

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

94.7%

24h Change

-1.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

27 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 19, 12:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 AM	94.7%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 PM	94.8%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 PM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 PM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 8:30:00 PM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 PM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 7:00:00 PM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 5:00:00 PM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 PM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 3:00:00 PM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 1:00:00 PM	94.8%
9/18/2026, 12:00:00 PM	94.8%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 AM	94.8%
9/18/2026, 10:45:00 AM	94.8%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 AM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 AM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 AM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 7:00:00 AM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 6:00:00 AM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 5:00:00 AM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 AM	95.0%
9/18/2026, 3:00:00 AM	95.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$74.9K

Volume vs Baseline

27.5x baseline

Liquidity

$78.7K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 40 days

End Date

Nov 3, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 47/100.

Probability Momentum 5

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 44

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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