Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Open · Resolves in 100 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

40.5%

24h Change

-16.0 pp

Signal Score

77/100

Data Confidence

High (88)

24h probability fell 16.0pp; volume is 8.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-23 13:29 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 16.0pp
24h volume is 8.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $51,390

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

40.5%

24h Change

-16.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 23, 01:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/23/2026, 1:15:00 PM	40.5%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 PM	41.0%
9/23/2026, 12:00:00 PM	56.5%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/23/2026, 2:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/23/2026, 12:00:00 AM	56.5%
9/22/2026, 11:00:00 PM	56.5%
9/22/2026, 10:00:00 PM	56.5%
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 PM	56.5%
9/22/2026, 8:00:00 PM	56.5%
9/22/2026, 7:00:00 PM	56.5%
9/22/2026, 6:00:00 PM	56.5%
9/22/2026, 5:00:00 PM	56.5%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 PM	56.5%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 PM	56.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-16.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$140.7K

Volume vs Baseline

8.4x baseline

Liquidity

$51.4K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 100 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 77/100.

Probability Momentum 53

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 100

Data Confidence High (88)

Next Steps

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