Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Open · Resolves in 150 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

38.4%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 0.5pp; volume is 15.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 07:42 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.5pp
24h volume is 15.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $93,927

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

38.4%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

44 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM	38.4%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM	38.4%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM	38.4%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM	38.4%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM	38.4%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM	38.4%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM	38.4%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM	38.4%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM	38.4%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM	38.3%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM	38.3%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM	38.3%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM	38.2%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM	38.2%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM	38.3%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM	38.3%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM	38.3%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 PM	38.3%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM	38.2%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM	38.2%
7/29/2026, 12:00:00 PM	38.3%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 AM	38.3%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM	38.0%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 AM	38.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$35.5K

Volume vs Baseline

15.4x baseline

Liquidity

$93.9K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 150 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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