Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Open · Resolves in 40 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

26.5%

24h Change

+5.0 pp

Signal Score

49/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 5.0pp; volume is 9.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-24 21:20 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 5.0pp
24h volume is 9.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $120,103

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

26.5%

24h Change

+5.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

169 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 24, 09:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/24/2026, 9:15:00 PM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 9:00:00 PM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 8:00:00 PM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 7:00:00 PM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 6:00:00 PM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 5:00:00 PM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 4:45:00 PM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 PM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 PM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 PM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 PM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 11:15:00 AM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 11:00:00 AM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 10:00:00 AM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 9:00:00 AM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 8:00:00 AM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 7:00:00 AM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 6:00:00 AM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 5:00:00 AM	27.5%
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 AM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 AM	27.5%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM	26.5%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM	24.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$77.0K

Volume vs Baseline

9.2x baseline

Liquidity

$120.1K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 40 days

End Date

Nov 3, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 49/100.

Probability Momentum 17

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗