Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

20.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

18/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

volume is 0.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 0.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $1,174,802

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

20.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

185 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	20.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	21.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	21.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	20.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	20.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$924.8K

Volume vs Baseline

0.9x baseline

Liquidity

$1.2M

Market Significance

High (85)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 18/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 100

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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