Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Open · Resolves in 103 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

16.5%

24h Change

+1.0 pp

Signal Score

29/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability rose 1.0pp; volume is 2.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-20 18:35 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 1.0pp
24h volume is 2.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $763,357

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

16.5%

24h Change

+1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

185 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 20, 06:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/20/2026, 6:30:00 PM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	17.5%
9/20/2026, 3:45:00 PM	17.5%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 10:45:00 AM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 AM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 AM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 AM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 4:30:00 AM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 AM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 AM	15.5%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 AM	15.5%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 AM	15.5%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 AM	15.5%
9/19/2026, 11:45:00 PM	15.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$373.8K

Volume vs Baseline

2.0x baseline

Liquidity

$763.4K

Market Significance

High (81)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 103 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 29/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 42

Liquidity Quality 96

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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