Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 102 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

22.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

35/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

volume is 3.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 54 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 04:13 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 3.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $111,189

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

22.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

173 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	22.5%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	21.5%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	22.0%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	22.0%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	23.5%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM	24.0%
9/20/2026, 10:15:00 PM	19.5%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	20.5%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM	24.5%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 PM	24.5%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM	23.5%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	20.5%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	20.0%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	19.5%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	16.5%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM	19.5%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM	20.5%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM	20.5%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM	20.5%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM	20.5%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM	20.5%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 AM	21.5%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 AM	22.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$226.7K

Volume vs Baseline

3.1x baseline

Liquidity

$111.2K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 102 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 35/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 70

Liquidity Quality 94

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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