Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

20.5%

24h Change

-3.1 pp

Signal Score

50/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability fell 3.1pp; volume is 29.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 54 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 3.1pp
24h volume is 29.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $145,513

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

20.5%

24h Change

-3.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

158 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	20.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	20.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	20.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	20.6%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	20.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	20.4%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	19.9%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	19.9%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	20.3%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	20.3%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	20.3%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	20.4%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	20.4%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	20.3%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	20.3%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	21.4%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	21.4%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	20.8%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	20.8%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	20.8%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	20.8%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	20.6%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	21.0%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	21.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$173.6K

Volume vs Baseline

29.7x baseline

Liquidity

$145.5K

Market Significance

High (81)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 50/100.

Probability Momentum 10

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 92

Persistence 41

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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