Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

91.4%

24h Change

-1.1 pp

Signal Score

36/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 1.1pp; volume is 3.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-01 07:36 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.1pp
24h volume is 3.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $199,464

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

91.4%

24h Change

-1.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

80 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 1, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/1/2026, 7:30:00 AM	91.4%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 AM	91.4%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 AM	91.0%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 AM	91.3%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 AM	91.2%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 AM	91.3%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 AM	91.0%
8/1/2026, 1:00:00 AM	91.0%
8/1/2026, 12:00:00 AM	91.0%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 PM	93.5%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 PM	93.5%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 PM	93.8%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 PM	93.8%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 PM	93.7%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 PM	93.6%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM	93.6%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM	93.8%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 PM	93.8%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM	93.5%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 PM	93.6%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 PM	93.7%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 AM	93.7%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM	92.5%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM	92.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$97.1K

Volume vs Baseline

3.5x baseline

Liquidity

$199.5K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 36/100.

Probability Momentum 4

Volume Activity 77

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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