US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

9.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

Signal Score

41/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 0.5pp; volume is 253.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-01 07:36 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.5pp
24h volume is 253.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $14,185

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

9.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

80 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 1, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/1/2026, 7:30:00 AM	9.0%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 AM	9.0%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 AM	9.0%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 AM	9.0%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/1/2026, 1:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/1/2026, 12:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM	8.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$41.0K

Volume vs Baseline

253.4x baseline

Liquidity

$14.2K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 41/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 79

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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