China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Open · Resolves in 148 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

6.9%

24h Change

+2.3 pp

Signal Score

34/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability rose 2.3pp; volume is 2.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 15 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-21 10:44 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability rose 2.3pp
  • 24h volume is 2.0x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $122,656

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

No samples yet

Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.

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Current

6.9%

24h Change

+2.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

0 stored snapshots

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$58.2K

Volume vs Baseline

2.0x baseline

Liquidity

$122.7K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 148 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

42

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 34/100.

Probability Momentum 8
Volume Activity 44
Liquidity Quality 88
Persistence 43
Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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