Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Open · Resolves in 218 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

38.0%

24h Change

+2.0 pp

Signal Score

45/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability rose 2.0pp; volume is 6.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-19 07:10 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 2.0pp
24h volume is 6.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $359,856

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

38.0%

24h Change

+2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

50 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 19, 07:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 AM	38.0%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 AM	38.0%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 AM	38.0%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 AM	38.0%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 AM	38.0%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 AM	38.0%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 AM	38.0%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 AM	38.0%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 PM	38.0%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 PM	38.0%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 PM	38.0%
9/18/2026, 8:30:00 PM	38.0%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 PM	38.0%
9/18/2026, 7:00:00 PM	38.1%
9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM	38.1%
9/18/2026, 5:00:00 PM	38.1%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 PM	38.1%
9/18/2026, 3:00:00 PM	38.1%
9/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM	38.1%
9/18/2026, 1:00:00 PM	36.6%
9/18/2026, 12:00:00 PM	36.6%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 AM	36.6%
9/18/2026, 10:45:00 AM	36.6%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 AM	36.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$110.0K

Volume vs Baseline

6.9x baseline

Liquidity

$359.9K

Market Significance

High (83)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 218 days

End Date

Apr 30, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 45/100.

Probability Momentum 7

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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