Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?

Open · Resolves in 219 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 0.1pp; volume is 20.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-22 04:10 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.1pp
24h volume is 20.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $582,582

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

134 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 22, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 12:15:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$147.5K

Volume vs Baseline

20.3x baseline

Liquidity

$582.6K

Market Significance

High (83)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 219 days

End Date

Apr 30, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 92

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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