Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Next French Presidential Election
Current Probability
13.5%
24h Change
+1.0 pp
Signal Score
42/100
Data Confidence
High (80)
24h probability rose 1.0pp; volume is 14.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability rose 1.0pp
- 24h volume is 14.5x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $177,104
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
13.5%
24h Change
+1.0 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7/30/2026, 6:45:00 PM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 13.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 12.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 12.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 12.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 12.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM | 12.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 12.5% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
Unchanged
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$29.4K
Volume vs Baseline
14.5x baseline
Liquidity
$177.1K
Market Significance
High (81)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 269 days
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Attention Score
68
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.
Probability Momentum
Strength of recent probability movement 3
Volume Activity
Trading activity versus the recent baseline 100
Liquidity Quality
Depth available to absorb orders without large price impact 85
Persistence
Whether the move holds across more than one lookback window 20
Data Confidence
Independent quality score for history coverage and data reliability High (80)