Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Open · Resolves in 264 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.3%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

41/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 0.1pp; volume is 7.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 12:59 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.1pp
24h volume is 7.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $327,221

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.3%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

169 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 12:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 12:45:00 PM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 10:30:00 AM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 8:45:00 AM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$44.8K

Volume vs Baseline

7.2x baseline

Liquidity

$327.2K

Market Significance

High (82)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 264 days

End Date

Apr 30, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 41/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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