Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

0.4%

24h Change

+0.3 pp

Signal Score

46/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability rose 0.3pp; volume is 8.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-02 20:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability rose 0.3pp
  • 24h volume is 8.6x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $137,651

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Latest 0.4% · Aug 2, 08:15 PM

0% 3% 1% Aug 1 Aug 2 Aug 2 Aug 2 Current 0.4% · 7d of stored history · 28 pts

Current

0.4%

24h Change

+0.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

133 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 2, 08:15 PM

View history table
Time Probability
8/2/2026, 8:15:00 PM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 3:45:00 PM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 11:45:00 AM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 AM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 AM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 7:30:00 AM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 AM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 AM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 AM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 AM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM 0.4%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 AM 0.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$69.3K

Volume vs Baseline

8.6x baseline

Liquidity

$137.7K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

68

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 46/100.

Probability Momentum 1
Volume Activity 100
Liquidity Quality 88
Persistence 50
Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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