China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

9.0%

24h Change

+2.0 pp

Signal Score

49/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability rose 2.0pp; volume is 48.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 18:59 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 2.0pp
24h volume is 48.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $58,309

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

9.0%

24h Change

+2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

56 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 06:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/30/2026, 6:45:00 PM	9.0%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM	9.0%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM	11.0%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM	8.0%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM	8.0%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM	8.0%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM	8.5%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM	8.5%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM	8.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$68.6K

Volume vs Baseline

48.2x baseline

Liquidity

$58.3K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 49/100.

Probability Momentum 7

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 55

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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