Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 104 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

8.5%

24h Change

+3.0 pp

Signal Score

46/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 3.0pp; volume is 15.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-19 12:22 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 3.0pp
24h volume is 15.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $94,341

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

8.5%

24h Change

+3.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 19, 12:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/19/2026, 12:15:00 PM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 PM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 AM	7.5%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 AM	7.5%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 AM	7.5%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 AM	7.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 AM	7.5%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 PM	7.5%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 PM	7.5%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 PM	7.5%
9/18/2026, 8:30:00 PM	7.5%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 PM	7.5%
9/18/2026, 7:00:00 PM	7.5%
9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM	7.5%
9/18/2026, 5:00:00 PM	7.0%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 PM	6.5%
9/18/2026, 3:00:00 PM	5.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$66.9K

Volume vs Baseline

15.5x baseline

Liquidity

$94.3K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 104 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 46/100.

Probability Momentum 10

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗