Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 150 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

25.5%

24h Change

+1.0 pp

Signal Score

31/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 1.0pp; volume is 2.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 1.0pp
24h volume is 2.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $66,350

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

25.5%

24h Change

+1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

155 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	25.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	25.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	25.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	25.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	25.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	25.0%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	25.0%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	25.0%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	25.0%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	25.0%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	25.0%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	25.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	25.0%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	25.0%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	25.0%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	25.0%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	25.0%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	25.0%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	25.0%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	25.0%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	25.0%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	25.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$83.1K

Volume vs Baseline

2.3x baseline

Liquidity

$66.4K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 150 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 31/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 53

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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