PR Prediction Radar

Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

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Current Probability

74.5%

24h Change

+9.0 pp

Signal Score

65/100

Data Confidence

High (87)

24h probability rose 9.0pp; volume is 7.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Data may be stale — last sync exceeded two update cycles. Freshness updates on the next successful sync.

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 23:39 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability rose 9.0pp
  • 24h volume is 7.1x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $82,847

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Latest 74.5% · Aug 4, 11:30 PM

65% 70% 75% Aug 4 Aug 4 Aug 4 Aug 4 Current 74.5% · 7d of stored history · 25 pts

Current

74.5%

24h Change

+9.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

140 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 11:30 PM

View history table
Time Probability
8/4/2026, 11:30:00 PM 74.5%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM 68.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM 67.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM 67.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM 67.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM 73.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM 73.0%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM 70.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM 68.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM 67.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM 67.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM 67.0%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM 67.0%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM 67.0%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM 67.0%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM 67.0%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM 67.0%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM 67.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM 66.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM 65.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM 65.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM 65.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM 65.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM 65.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+7.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$109.1K

Volume vs Baseline

7.1x baseline

Liquidity

$82.8K

Market Significance

High (80)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 4, 2026

Attention Score

77

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 65/100.

Probability Momentum 30
Volume Activity 100
Liquidity Quality 90
Persistence 87
Data Confidence High (87)

Next Steps

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