Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

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Current Probability

25.5%

24h Change

-9.0 pp

Signal Score

66/100

Data Confidence

High (88)

24h probability fell 9.0pp; volume is 7.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 23:39 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 9.0pp
24h volume is 7.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $119,253

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

25.5%

24h Change

-9.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

153 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 11:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 11:30:00 PM	25.5%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM	30.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM	33.0%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM	33.0%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM	32.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM	27.0%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	28.0%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM	30.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM	32.0%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM	32.0%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM	32.0%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM	33.0%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM	32.0%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM	33.0%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	33.0%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	33.0%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	34.0%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	34.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	34.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	34.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	34.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-7.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$106.1K

Volume vs Baseline

7.1x baseline

Liquidity

$119.3K

Market Significance

High (81)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 66/100.

Probability Momentum 30

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 90

Data Confidence High (88)

Next Steps

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