Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Open · Resolves in 9 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

98.0%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 0.1pp; volume is 5.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-07 16:37 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.1pp
24h volume is 5.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $152,918

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

98.0%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

127 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 7, 04:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/7/2026, 4:30:00 PM	98.0%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM	98.0%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 PM	98.0%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 PM	98.0%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM	98.0%
8/7/2026, 12:30:00 PM	98.0%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 PM	98.0%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 AM	98.1%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM	98.2%
8/7/2026, 9:30:00 AM	98.2%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 AM	98.0%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 AM	98.0%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 AM	98.0%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 AM	98.1%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 AM	98.0%
8/7/2026, 4:30:00 AM	97.9%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 AM	98.0%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 AM	98.2%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 AM	98.2%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 AM	98.0%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 AM	98.0%
8/6/2026, 11:00:00 PM	98.0%
8/6/2026, 10:00:00 PM	98.0%
8/6/2026, 9:00:00 PM	98.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$73.9K

Volume vs Baseline

5.8x baseline

Liquidity

$152.9K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 9 days

End Date

Aug 18, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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