Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

Open · Resolves in 14 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.8%

24h Change

-0.7 pp

Signal Score

46/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability fell 0.7pp; volume is 7.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-02 11:46 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.7pp
24h volume is 7.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $180,061

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.8%

24h Change

-0.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

107 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 2, 11:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/2/2026, 11:45:00 AM	1.8%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.9%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.9%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.9%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.9%
8/2/2026, 7:30:00 AM	1.6%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 AM	2.2%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 PM	2.2%
8/1/2026, 10:00:00 PM	2.2%
8/1/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/1/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.3%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.4%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.4%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 PM	2.4%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 PM	2.5%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 PM	2.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$96.6K

Volume vs Baseline

7.8x baseline

Liquidity

$180.1K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 14 days

End Date

Aug 18, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 46/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 45

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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