Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

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Current Probability

74.5%

24h Change

+3.0 pp

Signal Score

35/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 3.0pp; volume is 2.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 17 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 07:14 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 3.0pp
24h volume is 2.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $35,512

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

74.5%

24h Change

+3.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

168 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 07:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	74.5%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 AM	74.5%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	73.5%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	74.5%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	73.0%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	70.5%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	70.5%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	70.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	70.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	70.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	70.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	71.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	71.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	71.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	71.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	71.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	70.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	70.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	70.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	70.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	71.0%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	70.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	70.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	71.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$42.9K

Volume vs Baseline

2.7x baseline

Liquidity

$35.5K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 35/100.

Probability Momentum 10

Volume Activity 62

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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