Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-26.5 pp

Signal Score

78/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 26.5pp; volume is 4.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 12 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 17:00 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 26.5pp
24h volume is 4.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $153,702

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-26.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

160 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 05:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 9:15:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 7:30:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 5:30:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/12/2026, 2:15:00 AM	2.9%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	32.0%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM	32.0%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 PM	30.5%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 PM	30.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$46.6K

Volume vs Baseline

4.2x baseline

Liquidity

$153.7K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 78/100.

Probability Momentum 88

Volume Activity 89

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

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