Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

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Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

+95.7 pp

Signal Score

88/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability rose 95.7pp; volume is 110.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 9 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 19:06 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 95.7pp
24h volume is 110.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $440,456

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

100.0%

24h Change

+95.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

165 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 07:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 1:15:00 PM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 9:15:00 AM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	100.0%
8/12/2026, 7:30:00 AM	99.6%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	99.8%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	90.5%
8/12/2026, 5:30:00 AM	89.8%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	91.5%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	78.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	35.5%
8/12/2026, 2:15:00 AM	56.0%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	83.2%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$1.3M

Volume vs Baseline

110.8x baseline

Liquidity

$440.5K

Market Significance

High (87)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

100

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 88/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 100

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (82)

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