Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

Open · Resolves in 2 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

96.3%

24h Change

+1.7 pp

Signal Score

27/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 1.7pp; volume is 2.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 9 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 05:10 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 1.7pp
24h volume is 2.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $61,845

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

96.3%

24h Change

+1.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

159 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 05:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	96.3%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	96.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	96.2%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	96.6%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	96.3%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	96.3%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM	96.3%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 PM	96.2%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 PM	96.2%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM	96.2%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM	96.2%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM	96.0%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 PM	95.5%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM	95.7%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 PM	95.4%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 PM	96.0%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 PM	95.1%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 PM	95.2%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 AM	94.7%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 AM	94.6%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 AM	94.6%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 AM	94.6%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 AM	94.7%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 AM	94.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$31.4K

Volume vs Baseline

2.0x baseline

Liquidity

$61.8K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 2 days

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 27/100.

Probability Momentum 6

Volume Activity 43

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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