Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?

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Current Probability

71.0%

24h Change

+10.5 pp

Signal Score

61/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability rose 10.5pp; volume is 6.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 05:13 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 10.5pp
24h volume is 6.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $33,083

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

71.0%

24h Change

+10.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 05:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	71.0%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	69.0%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	63.0%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	63.0%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	62.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	60.0%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	59.0%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	62.0%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	62.0%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	62.0%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	62.0%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	62.0%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	62.0%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	61.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$43.5K

Volume vs Baseline

6.9x baseline

Liquidity

$33.1K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 61/100.

Probability Momentum 35

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 51

Data Confidence High (83)

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