Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?

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Current Probability

29.0%

24h Change

-6.5 pp

Signal Score

51/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability fell 6.5pp; volume is 3.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 05:13 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 6.5pp
24h volume is 3.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $51,366

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

29.0%

24h Change

-6.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 05:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	29.0%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	32.0%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	36.0%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	36.5%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	37.0%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	37.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	34.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	40.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	41.0%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	40.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	41.0%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	41.0%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	39.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	39.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	41.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	39.0%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	36.0%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	36.0%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	36.0%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	36.0%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	36.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	34.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	35.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-3.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$36.5K

Volume vs Baseline

3.3x baseline

Liquidity

$51.4K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 51/100.

Probability Momentum 22

Volume Activity 74

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 68

Data Confidence High (84)

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