Fed rate hike in 2026?

Open · Resolves in 127 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

67.5%

24h Change

+1.0 pp

Signal Score

18/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 1.0pp; volume is 0.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 16 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 18:27 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 1.0pp
24h volume is 0.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $252,908

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

67.5%

24h Change

+1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

157 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 06:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 10:45:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 9:15:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 8:45:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM	67.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$60.8K

Volume vs Baseline

0.3x baseline

Liquidity

$252.9K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 127 days

End Date

Dec 9, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 18/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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